Will Myanmar block East Timor’s Asean entry? The junta draws a red line

Myanmar’s military regime is attempting to block East Timor’s accession over its engagement with the ousted National Unity Government

As East Timor edges closer to joining Asean, Myanmar’s military rulers are seeking to block its entry, in a warning to it – and governments everywhere – against engaging with the war-torn country’s opposition forces.

Last week, sources cited by public broadcaster Thai PBS revealed that Myanmar’s military regime had formally notified Malaysia, the current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, of its intent to withhold support for East Timor’s membership when the bloc convenes in October.

Naypyidaw’s objection centres on accusations that East Timor has breached Asean’s foundational principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of member states, as enshrined in the bloc’s charter.

The junta has called on East Timor’s government in Dili to “refrain” from any dealings with the National Unity Government (NUG) – a group of elected lawmakers ousted by the 2021 coup – and other resistance groups fighting military rule in Myanmar.

In a letter, the junta warned that if Dili continued to openly violate the non-interference principle when it came to Myanmar’s internal affairs, then “we must firmly reject any consideration of granting Asean membership” to East Timor. It was reportedly signed by Myanmar official Han Win Aung, the bloc’s director general for Asean-Myanmar affairs and an alternate leader of its Senior Officials’ Meeting.

East Timor’s President Jose Ramos-Horta responded to the letter by stating that preparations for his country’s accession to Asean were already “well under way”. “Myanmar’s opposition is irrelevant,” he said, as quoted by UCA News, noting that a formal decision had “already been made”.

At a May gathering, Asean leaders agreed to admit East Timor as the bloc’s 11th member at the coming summit in October.

But Myanmar has now urged Asean to halt all procedural steps for accession until Dili “revises its approach and demonstrates a clear commitment to rectifying its policy towards Myanmar”, according to the letter.

The dispute follows a series of confrontations: in August 2023, Myanmar expelled East Timor’s top diplomat in the country after Dili held meetings with the NUG. As one of Asia’s youngest democracies, East Timor has been a consistent critic of Myanmar’s military regime and an outspoken supporter of the Myanmar people’s struggle to restore democracy.

‘Affront to its sovereignty’

By objecting to East Timor’s accession, Myanmar’s military regime was sending a message both to Asean and its domestic audience, said Joanne Lin Weiling, a senior fellow and co-coordinator at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s Asean Studies Centre.

The junta regards East Timor’s engagement with the NUG – including Dili’s decision to allow the NUG to open a liaison office in the country – as “a direct affront to its sovereignty”, Lin said.

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“By invoking Asean’s principle of non-interference, the junta is trying to reframe this as a breach of the Asean Charter,” she said.

“This is probably less about Asean norms and more about deterring other members from following suit, while reinforcing its narrative at home that it is defending national dignity.”

But Myanmar’s ability to shape outcomes in Asean was limited, Lin said, especially since member states had already agreed in principle to Dili’s admission.

Other Asean members, including Malaysia and Indonesia, have also engaged the NUG, making it difficult to single out Dili “without appearing inconsistent”, Lin said.

In April, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim held an online meeting with Mahn Winn Khaing Thann, the NUG’s prime minister-in-exile, while Indonesia hosted a session involving representatives of ethnic resistance groups and the NUG in 2023.

Thus, while the junta might succeed in “stalling or complicating the process” of Dili’s entry, Lin said its objection was unlikely to overturn the broader consensus.

“It just shows how Myanmar can still exploit Asean’s consensus model to create friction, even when its broader influence is marginal,” she added.

It would only need one Asean member to get cranky for any reason to put its membership into the too-hard basketDamien Kingsbury, academic specialising in Southeast Asian politics

Damien Kingsbury, a professor emeritus at Australia’s Deakin University and a specialist in Southeast Asian politics, said that while Asean members had often called for an end to Myanmar’s civil war, they had “been timid on the issue”.

“In part, then, allowing [East Timor] to speak up let them off the hook,” he said, noting that no Asean member had attempted to sanction Dili over the issue of “non-interference”.

“The junta probably understands this and wants to silence criticism, so it is making a stand on the issue,” Kingsbury said, adding that East Timor’s membership bid could still be delayed or deferred for another year.

Myanmar is not the only obstacle: in March, the Philippines issued its own warning, citing Dili’s refusal to extradite a former Filipino politician wanted for murder.

“It would only need one Asean member to get cranky for any reason to put its membership into the too-hard basket,” Kingsbury said, adding that there was a “faint sense” within Asean that East Timor was more Pacific than Asian – “so enthusiasm has been muted”.

East Timor has sought Asean membership since shortly after achieving independence in 2002, but the process has been hampered by concerns over its economic underdevelopment and institutional capacity to fully participate in the bloc’s activities.

However, according to Hunter Marston, an adjunct fellow with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies who holds a PhD in international relations, Myanmar’s current objection is “only procedural and mostly symbolic” and will not derail East Timor’s accession, which Asean agreed to in principle in 2022.

He said Naypyidaw’s resistance came as no surprise given its “long-held and consistent opposition” to what it sees as interference in domestic affairs.

Both East Timor’s Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao and President Ramos-Horta have been vocal critics of the junta, spotlighting its human rights abuses on the international stage.

“I don’t see any chance of the Philippines’ voting against Timor joining Asean in the October summit,” Hunter said, pointing to President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s public reaffirmation of his support in May.

Lin agreed, arguing that most Asean members saw anchoring East Timor in the bloc as strategically important, not only to aid its development but to insulate it from “competing external influences”.

“Announcing Dili’s full membership would mark a key legacy achievement and reinforce Asean’s narrative of regional unity,” she said.