Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense system revives Reagan’s nuclear shield dream

On May 20, President Donald Trump launched the Golden Dome missile defense initiative. I was in college when President Ronald Reagan launched the Strategic Defense Initiative—initially mocked by its opponents as “Star Wars.”

Trump named Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein as the Golden Dome project’s leader, a tell that the system will be primarily space-based.

Technology in two areas has altered the equation for missile defense, likely making defending against nuclear missiles—even hypersonic ones, less expensive than building the offensive nuclear weapons. This was not the case when Reagan announced SDI in 1983. The Great Communicator said then that, “What if free people could live secure in the knowledge that their security did not rest upon the threat of instant U.S. retaliation to deter a Soviet attack, that we could intercept and destroy strategic ballistic missiles before they reached our own soil or that of our allies? … this is a formidable, technical task … will take years, probably decades of effort on many fronts… But isn’t it worth every investment necessary to free the world from the threat of nuclear war? We know it is.”

CHINA ACCUSES US OF ‘TURNING SPACE INTO A ‘WARZONE’ WITH TRUMP’S GOLDEN DOME MISSILE DEFENSE PROJECT

The threat of nuclear war that Reagan was worried about and thought immoral, was that of the doctrine of mutually assured destruction, or MAD. MAD held that a nuclear balance of terror could keep the peace—that as long as nuclear rivals knew that, even if they struck first, the other side could still inflict massive damage in return.

Now, 42 years later, the cost to launch objects into low earth orbit has gone from about $53,000 per pound to $3,344 per pound for SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy and $147 per pound for Starship. This is a reduction in the cost to orbit of 360-fold with Elon Musk shooting for $22 per pound ($10 per kilogram)—a reduction in the cost of putting defensive systems into space of 2,400 times since the mid-1980s. This makes it far more affordable to loft a missile defense system into orbit.

On the electronics front, the advancements are even more impressive. Computing power has surged over 40 years, with costs of processing power dropping by over 37 million times from 1985 to 2025, enabling real-time tracking of missiles aimed at the homeland.

With lighter sensors and computers, modern interceptor missile warheads can weigh 4-10 pounds, compared to 22 pounds in 1985. Space-based sensor systems can be similarly lighter and far more capable.

This revolution in the cost to orbit and the cost of computing power has likely hit an inflection point where it may be less expensive to build a missile defense shield than to build offensive nuclear weapons.

The U.S. builds a new ICBM for about $162 million, while a modern missile interceptor, at 110 pounds, might cost $12,000 to launch into orbit and $1 million to manufacture. Deploying 1,000 interceptors could cost $1 billion (many interceptors are needed in orbit to counter any given launch), versus $16.2 billion for 100 ICBMs, suggesting defense could be cheaper, especially with ongoing technological improvements.

Trump’s Golden Dome: A modern vision

President Trump’s Golden Dome project, on the other hand, is a $175 billion missile defense system designed to protect the U.S. from ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles, including those launched from space. Inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome, which has proven effective against short-range rockets, the Golden Dome aims to shield the entire U.S., a continent-spanning nation 450 times larger, from advanced threats. As envisioned, the system includes space-based interceptors, sensors, and satellites. Trump wants to have the system fully operational by 2029, integrating next-generation technologies across land, sea, and space.

Given the 360-fold reduction in space launch costs (and likely 1,000-fold), and the massive increase in electronic capacity, Trump’s Golden Dome could realize Reagan’s SDI dreams.

Unsurprisingly, China attacked the missile defense initiative less than 24 hours later, parroting the former Soviet Union’s response to SDI.

More importantly, the Department of Defense will be capable of protecting the homeland from a devastating nuclear attack—without automatically resorting to a massive nuclear counterstrike that could kill and wound 100 million people or more.