The ‘Trump Effect’ on Elections Is Just Beginning, Including in Japan

Donald Trump has only been president of the United States, this time around, for about three months. It has been a dramatic three months since his inauguration—so dramatic that some interesting aspects of the mercurial U.S. leader’s impact on the world get less notice. They are often lost among the ways in which he has shocked the global order, global markets, alliances and the U.S. economy itself.

Yet since that inauguration, the president also seems to be creating a “Trump effect” on many, though not all, foreign elections, especially among countries that have been important U.S. allies and partners. In general, the effect has been to boost the popularity of left or center-left parties in national elections. Yet sometimes it is not just leftist parties that win, but rather a leader who stands up to Trump the most or seems to the public like the best-equipped figure to handle the White House.

This is an effect that started recently in Greenland, a Danish-controlled self-governing protectorate. Since his inauguration, Trump has repeatedly and publicly mused about annexing Greenland, sometimes suggesting the U.S. should do so by force.

The impact? In Greenland’s March elections, a centrist party that wants gradual independence from Denmark, which many voters seemed to believe puts Greenland in the best position to ward off Trump, won national elections. The party’s leader, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, has repeatedly and publicly blasted the U.S. president, calling him “a threat to our political independence.”

It continued with Canada’s upcoming vote but seems to be spreading globally, including to many important U.S. partners in Asia. In Canada, the Liberal Party, long in power under Justin Trudeau and having failed to fulfill some major promises like reducing the cost of housing, seemed doomed, just a few months ago, in federal elections that will be held on April 28. The Liberals trailed by 25 points to the Conservatives just a few months ago.

Yet Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, who replaced Trudeau on the ticket, and the Liberals in general, have catapulted into the lead, a turnaround unheard of in Canadian politics. In some polls the Liberals are now taking a double-digit lead.

Why? In his campaign rhetoric, Carney has aggressively defended his country against Trump and his public attacks on Canada, such as calling for it to become the “51st state” and suggesting the U.S. might invade. The Conservative Party candidate for prime minister, Pierre Poilievre, meanwhile, has not focused as much on Trump, which makes him appear weaker. He has mostly tried to avoid discussing the U.S. president in part because it’s hard for him to inveigh against Trump when a segment of Conservatives share some of his views on important issues.

The Trump effect is now on display across the Pacific as well. Australia heads to the polls on May 3. As I recently noted in a short post for CFR.org, the current Australian Labor government and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese are not particularly popular—though not nearly as unpopular as Canada’s Liberals were.

Still, Albanese had not enacted several of his top agenda items either, such as fighting inflation and boosting growth, and his image as a forward‑looking champion of the working class (which he came from) has been tarnished. The Australian Labor Party, back in polling in December, trailed the opposition conservative Liberal–National Coalition, commonly called the Coalition, a bloc comprising the Liberal and National parties that unite to compete in federal elections.

But in recent weeks, as Trump imposed tariffs on Australia even though America has a trade surplus with its close ally down under and the U.S. president’s ministers have mocked Australia, Albanese has been better able than his Coalition rival, Peter Dutton, who praised Trump in the past, to present himself as a figure who can take on the U.S. leader. As Bloomberg reported, Albanese’s favorability ratings have risen sharply and Labor now looks likely to win the election.

The Philippines, normally one of the most pro-U.S. countries in Asia, will hold midterm elections in May. Parties in the Philippines do not usually have clear ideological lines like those in many other countries.

Although the biggest issue in the midterm is the continuing feud between the Marcos and Duterte families, and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is not on the ballot, the midterms are usually seen as a referendum on a presidency.

And Marcos has effectively promoted himself as the only stable Philippine leader who can maintain the security relationship with Washington while also protecting trade interests. He may be right: Marcos has already met U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and at some point, the Philippine leader is expected to meet his American counterpart. According to the Philippine ambassador to the U.S., both sides have confirmed plans for a White House visit, though no date has been set.

Even places with long histories of staid elections may hit Trump-effect turbulence. On May 3, Singapore will hold national elections. Although the People’s Action Party, which has ruled Singapore for decades, is almost sure to win, in recent years the opposition has become a more viable force. It has won enough seats to force real debate in Parliament and forced the PAP into its lowest share of the popular vote.

Trump’s tariffs, which if maintained will badly hurt Singapore’s economy and could give the populist opposition more ammunition, though the PAP could also argue that, in an uncertain world, voters should stick with them. The opposition will surely point to Trump tariffs, and the ruling party’s inability to escape them and maintain at least modest growth, to hit the PAP on its biggest weakness—the cost of living even for middle class Singaporeans. The city-state regularly now ranks as the most expensive place to live in the world yet might have zero growth this year because of Trump’s policies.

The Trump effect is also likely to influence South Korea’s presidential election in June, which is being held to replace former President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was impeached and removed from office. Yoon’s alleged coup attempt has already badly damaged his party and added to the toxic polarization that is undermining South Korean democracy.

But Trump’s tariff blasts at South Korea and Japan, which he seems particularly angry at, also have helped the left-leaning Lee Jae-myung into the lead for the South Korean presidency.

And Trump’s complaints about Japan, which were skillfully managed during his first term by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, seem partly rooted in the fact that many of his views were shaped in the 1980s and have barely changed since. Back then, he was outraged by what he saw as Japan taking advantage of the United States.

In this summer’s Upper House elections in Japan, Trump will undoubtedly have an impact. While Trump’s initial tariffs somewhat distracted people from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s own unpopularity and mistakes, and the LDP’s loss last year of a Lower House majority, the public focus will shift soon enough back to the prime minister. He is currently in major talks with the White House about the tariffs, pledging not to make major concessions but without a clear strategy of what to do.

If the prime minister wraps up the talks with the Trump administration having made major concessions or appearing weak, both he and the LDP could be even more vulnerable in the upcoming Upper House vote. In fact, any serious misstep with Trump could trigger a no-confidence vote in the Lower House—a scenario that now seems more likely than it did on Jan. 19, the day before Trump’s inauguration.