On the latest episode of The President’s Inbox, Jim sat down with Šumit Ganguly, senior fellow and director of the U.S.-India Program at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, to discuss the origins and consequences of the recent military clash between nuclear powers India and Pakistan.

Here are three takeaways from their conversation:

1) India attacked Pakistan in retaliation for a terrorist attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir. The Resistance Front, an Islamist insurgency in Kashmir, captured and killed twenty-six Indian citizens and visiting tourists on April 22. The Front has known ties to the Pakistani terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, and leaders across the Indian political spectrum demanded a hardline stance to punish Pakistan for the attack. Lashkar-e-Taiba and affiliated groups carried out major terrorist attacks in Mumbai in 2008 and Pulwama in 2019, straining India–Pakistan relations and fueling religious tensions within India. Despite this, military responses remained limited to skirmishes and armed posturing along their border. In contrast, following the April 22 attack, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government pledged direct retaliation against Pakistan. Modi had promoted a narrative of political stability in the contested Kashmir province to encourage tourism, development, and integration. Given the clear failure of this program and of past efforts to deter terrorist activity, “Modi had to demonstrate that he was willing to respond with considerable vigor,” Šumit argued. “He knew he would pay an electoral price if he did not.”

2) Air strikes and drone bombings by both sides ended inconclusively. On May 6, the Indian Air Force launched airstrikes reportedly targeting Lashkar-e-Taiba camps across the Pakistani border. Pakistan retaliated, prompting India to strike at Pakistani military bases. Both militaries deployed hundreds of drones for surveillance and bombing missions, and they accused each other of targeting civilian homes and mosques. Notably, India’s strikes reached deeper into Pakistan than in previous clashes, hitting areas near nuclear command facilities in Rawalpindi and radar installations in Lahore. While this raised fears of an escalation between the two nuclear powers, Šumit noted that “nuclear weapons produce a certain concentration of mind… ultimately both sides have no interest in violating the nuclear taboo.” However, two developments cast doubt on the effectiveness of India’s campaign: the confirmed downing of several advanced Indian-operated jets, and an unexplained two-week delay in launching the limited operation. Despite the Modi government’s claims of success, these setbacks raise questions about India’s military readiness and its ability to maintain credible deterrence against Pakistan.

3) A ceasefire between India and Pakistan holds despite heightened tensions. After three days of back-and-forth strikes, both sides announced a ceasefire on May 10. Away from the battlefield, India had already frozen all Pakistani visas, expelled diplomats, and closed border checkpoints. Pakistan has followed suit by copying these measures and suspending all physical goods trade. Most dangerously, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, which permits water from the upper Indus River to flow into Pakistan, but diverting it as monsoon season approaches could trigger flooding across the entire region. As India’s nationalist governing coalition continues to support a hardline policy, Šumit argues, “Modi is caught in a rhetorical trap of his own making and cannot appear to make any gesture of understanding toward Pakistan.” Meanwhile, the chief of staff of the Pakistani army, General Asim Munir, who wields significant influence over the country’s politics, has doubled down on rhetoric asserting irreconcilable differences between Hindus and Muslims. Active fighting may have stopped for now, but further turmoil between India and Pakistan could lie ahead.

If you’re looking to read more from Šumit , check out his latest article for Foreign Policy titled, “What Is the Risk of a Conflict Spiral Between India and Pakistan?”