The Philippines’ Dynasties are Going Scorched-Earth on Each Other: How Will the Country Fare?
Philippine politics have historically been dominated by a handful of political dynasties, making it hard for a politician to rise up through the ranks and gain the presidency. At the highest level, these include the Arroyos, the Aquinos, the Marcoses, and more recently the Dutertes. This includes former president Rodrigo Duterte (who is in jail awaiting trial at the International Criminal Court in the Hague but managed to win a mayorship in recent local and national election from his cell) and his daughter, Sara Duterte, who served as mayor of Davao, the family’s southern stronghold, and is now vice president. Ferdinand Marcos Jr, of course, is the current president.
Many Southeast Asian and South Asian states have a level of dynastic politics. The U.S. is not immune: we had a Bush presidency, a Clinton presidency, another Bush presidency, and then a campaign for president by the former first lady in the Clinton presidency. But according to research by a group of Filipino economists, “Political dynasties in the Philippines are exceptional in their persistence and scope. Almost 80 percent of Congress and well over 50 percent of all elected local government officials are from political families.” Their research also shows that just having this level of dynastic politics bloats the government, leads to corruption, inhibits new business creation, and leads to greater inequality and poverty.
The situation gets worse when leading dynasties battle each other, as is happening now in the country – and will likely ramp up until the next presidential election in 2028. Until then, the Marcoses and Dutertes likely will unleash the most scorched-earth tactics used in the Philippines since the era of Marcos’s father, the longtime dictator Ferdinand Marcos. And a country that has weaker economic fundamentals than the other sizable Southeast Asian economies will suffer for it – badly. For more on the battle of the dynasties, and its consequences, see my new article in World Politics Review: https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/philippines-marcos-duterte-polarization/.
