Thailand’s Border Conflict With Cambodia Raises Fear of Another Coup

In recent weeks, Thailand and Cambodia, which at times have had close diplomatic and economic ties, have engaged in an escalating border war, one that shows no evidence of slowing down. This comes after years of rapprochement between the two states. As Time notes, it was only a few years ago that Thailand’s then-Ambassador to Cambodia Panyarak Poolthup told Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen, “As we share a long border, we both know that we have to live and grow together … The political will is always there to resolve any issues that may arise.”

Despite significantly warmer ties in recent years, the bilateral relationship still had some sharp edges. A major remaining issue was over who controlled certain areas of the Thailand-Cambodia-Laos border. It was in this area that, on May 28, there was a skirmish between Thai and Cambodian forces and one Cambodian soldier was killed. The two countries then escalated from there, with major ramifications.

The border conflict is driving a sizable cleavable between two countries that have in the past decade built strong bilateral relations, is threatening all of mainland Southeast Asia’s economic ties – and has the potential to bring more political chaos to Thailand, which has been roiled by political instability for two decades.

Both sides saber-rattled after the Cambodians’ death, with Thailand saying its troops were defending against an attack and Cambodia saying the Thais shot first. Angry rhetorical shots were fired, with Hun Sen, the father of the current prime minister and still probably the most powerful force in Cambodia, publicly declaring, “I do not wish to see any armed conflict break out, but I fully support the Royal Government’s decision to deploy troops and heavy weaponry to the border area as a means of preparing for defense in the event of continued aggression.” Thai leaders hit back with their own critiques.

Both sides have gone beyond rhetoric. Both countries increased their troop presence in the area of the skirmish. Cambodia has banned petroleum exports to Thailand. The Thai army has suggested cutting internet service to Cambodia, and Cambodia has cut internet links into Thailand. Thailand has closed the border to Cambodia for now, and this temporarily bars all Cambodian tourists, who are a sizable market for Thailand.

The Thai leadership this week said that Thailand would consider blocking exports to Cambodia, because of fears Cambodia would use some of the exports in the cyberscam centers proliferating in Cambodia. An export block would be highly unusual among ASEAN states, which prize their harmony and unity, and it could impact not only Cambodia’s economy but also those of states around it, which might see Cambodian goods dumped on them.

At the same time, in this heated and nationalist atmosphere, in which the Thai army claims it may be building up a major cross-border operation, one casualty could be Thai prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Her family, a Thai political dynasty, long has been personally close with Hun Sen and Hun Manet, and many Thais worried that Paetongtarn, who had no previous political experience, will not protect Thailand’s interests. It did not help that a recent call between her and Hun Sen was leaked, and on it she criticizes a top Thai army leader for grandstanding and seems happy to accommodate Hun Sen.

Angering the military is never a good idea in Thailand, and a party close to the military, the Bhumjaithai Party immediately pulled out of her coalition. Now Bhumjaithai has called for a vote of no-confidence on Paetongtarn and her remaining parliamentary coalition, which the prime minister believes still is more than half of parliament. She survived a prior vote of no confidence in March.

Yet if parliament votes that they have lost confidence in her this time around, it could trigger snap elections and throw Thai politics into further chaos. Her actions already have empowered the military, which seems more in control of politics now than civilian politicians. As always in Thailand, a military that feels greater strength, a weak civilian leader, and a surge of nationalism raises the real fear of a coup, in a country infamous for them. Next week may well determine whether the army moves into control again.