Philippines Election: Duterte Wins From the Hague But Marcos Hangs On

The Philippines held elections earlier this week for several seats in its upper house of parliament, its entire lower house, and some regional and local elections. As has long been the case in Philippine elections, the main theme of the vote surrounded the battle between two political dynasties—rather than major international issues or even the country’s serious domestic challenges. Even President Donald Trump, who played a role in recent national elections in Singapore, Australia, and Canada, among others, did not really factor into this vote.

In the past, the Philippines’ warring dynasties varied—the Marcoses, the Arroyos, the Aquinos, and others—but this time the election pitted President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and the members of his clan against the Dutertes. The latter family is, in essence, led by Sara Duterte who is President Marcos Jr.’s vice president. She is also the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, who has been indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

The two families detest each other, and Sara Duterte openly disdains Marcos Jr. She was impeached by the lower house on charges of allegedly misusing public funds and plotting to assassinate her running mate. The election results and how it sets the table for the next presidential election may only exacerbate this feud and could have strategic implications for the United States. 

Though Rodrigo Duterte is currently being held in the Hague after overseeing a bloody, brutal “drug war” while president between 2016 and 2022, he was just elected as mayor of Davao, the southern city central to his base. (Since he cannot serve from a jail cell, the vice mayor, his son, will probably be mayor.) His supporters believe that Marcos Jr. allowed Interpol to bring him to the Hague for trial, which is probably correct. This victory in Davao is important, however, because it serves as a reminder that the Dutertes are still a political force to be reckoned with in the Philippines.

It remains to be seen how popular the family is beyond their southern base, given the lingering anger among many Filipinos about the excesses of the drug war.  That could be why Marcos Jr. performed relatively well in a midterm election, which—as in the United States—can often rebound against a president’s party. In the Philippine Senate, candidates supported by Marcos Jr. won at least half the seats.

This could complicate matters for Sara Duterte after her impeachment. The newly elected senators will now be able to weigh in on her future during the impeachment trial in July. If the Senate convicts her, she will be barred from politics and unable to run for the presidency in 2028. And, despite all the media coverage of Rodrigo Duterte’s mayoral win, the party backing Marcos Jr. also performed very well in the lower house—another sign that he may retain far more popularity than the former president.

If she is not convicted, Sara Duterte will likely run for the presidency after Marcos Jr.’s single term ends. (Philippine presidents are allowed one six-year term). And her success as a candidate could turn Philippine politics 180 degrees once again.

Of all Southeast Asian states, the Philippines has been closest with the United States under Marcos Jr., both in defense and strategic matters as well as in economic issues. The Dutertes, meanwhile, lean much more toward China. Rodrigo Duterte openly despised the United States due to a range of incidents earlier in his life. He even tried to make China the primary external partner of the Philippines during his presidency.

Whoever ultimately runs in the 2028 presidential election, and their choice of external partner, could shape the future of the region and affect related strategic issues. In the meantime, the chaotic politics in the Philippines that were illustrated in this election could detract from Manila’s ability to be an effective partner to Washington.