Megaquake fears shake Japan after 2,000 tremors hit island chain since June 21

Japan’s weather agency has logged at least four ‘felt quakes’ in the area with an intensity of 4 on the country’s Shindo scale since Sunday

More than 2,000 “felt quakes” have shaken a string of islands in southwestern Japan since June 21, according to the country’s weather agency, triggering fears that they are presaging a megaquake.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) logged four temblors with an intensity of 4 in the area on Sunday and at least one on Monday, according to the Kyodo news agency.

A level-4 temblor on Japan’s 10-level Shindo scale is considered a “felt quake” as people will notice the shaking, which can set suspended fixtures swaying and topple objects on tables.

More than 60 residents have been evacuated from the Akuseki and Kodakara islands in the Tokara chain since July 4, after a quake measuring a lower 6 hit the area. Only 20 remained on Akuseki, which has an area of less than 8 sq km (3 square miles) and a population of 89, Nippon TV reported on Wednesday.

One evacuee told the broadcaster he was still traumatised by his experience and had trouble sleeping. “I always dream about earthquakes, or the island. Then I wake up. I feel the earthquake in my dreams, and in them, I go through exactly what I had actually experienced in real life.”

Some evacuees have asked to be allowed to go home, but local authorities say they can do so only when there are five straight days without a quake measuring 4 or above.

That, however, would not be soon, going by the weather agency’s observations. “The seismic activity remains dynamic,” JMA official Ayataka Ebita said earlier this month.

The cluster of small quakes has fuelled fears of a possible megaquake, especially as it coincided with a viral panic stemming from a prediction in a manga novel that was first published in 1999 and reprinted with additional content in 2021.

On the cover of Ryo Tatsuki’s The Future that I Saw, a graphic novel exploring the artist’s dreams, is the prediction: “The real disaster will come in July 2025.” A panel inside reveals “the ocean floor between Japan and the Philippines will crack”.

The actual date of the manga prediction, July 5, has since passed without any major calamity, but people are still mindful of another projection with more scientific backing.

Last August, the JMA issued its first-ever “megaquake advisory”, saying that there was a 70 per cent to 80 per cent chance of a magnitude 8 or 9 earthquake connected to the Nankai Trough occurring within the next 30 years.

Up to 298,000 people could be killed in an earthquake of that magnitude, the JMA said. It has revealed that it aims to reduce that number by 80 per cent in 10 years through better emergency earthquake response and disaster mitigation.

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