Is Malaysia’s Umno set for a comeback amid Anwar’s cabinet chaos?

The sudden exit of two cabinet ministers has rocked Anwar Ibrahim’s government. Malaysia’s long-ruling Umno could be set to capitalise

The sudden exit of two key members of Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s cabinet has thrown his government into a tailspin, with analysts warning that the former ruling Umno may have more bargaining clout over ministerial roles or even return to power at the next general election.

Umno, which was ousted in the 2018 election under corruption-tainted former prime minister Najib Razak after six decades in power, is a key minority partner in Anwar’s unity government. It had appeared destined for a prolonged spell on the sidelines as a result of the 1MDB and other scandals’ ripple effects.

But Anwar’s coalition government has been weakened by the resignations last Wednesday of Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, who held the economy and environment portfolios, respectively, and were also senior leaders in the ruling People’s Justice Party (PKR).

On Friday, Trade Minister Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz announced that he was leaving Umno to join PKR, in a decision that would likely alienate supporters of both parties.

As a result of the cabinet turmoil, analysts say Umno may make its first moves to strengthen its position ahead of the next general election, which has to be held by early 2028.

Political analyst Syaza Farhana Mohamad Shukri said Umno might be able to negotiate for better cabinet portfolios from Anwar in exchange for “allowing” Zafrul’s move to PKR.

“PKR has already lost two good ministers and also has a limited number of MPs,” said Syaza, who heads the political science department at the International Islamic University of Malaysia. “Who else can they put in charge? It’s not good for the party.”

Grass-roots members of Anwar’s party have questioned the prime minister’s commitment to his Reformasi or reform agenda against corruption and cronyism, particularly after his daughter Nurul Izzah became the PKR’s No 2 after its election on May 23.

Rafizi and Nik Nazmi quit their cabinet posts following their loss in the election. Rafizi had previously objected to PKR heavyweights pushing for Nurul Izzah to take over his role as deputy president.

Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan coalition won the watershed election in 2018 after campaigning against entrenched corruption within Umno.

But the prime minister has since been panned for supposedly making concessions to Umno leaders, particularly Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who was granted a limited discharge from dozens of corruption charges in 2023.

“As long as select Umno actors appear to be dealt with leniently or have their cases dropped, then there is no anti-graft reputation to protect,” said Azif Azuddin, a research associate at the Malaysia-based think tank Iman Research. “The public is not buying the spectacle.”

At the same time, Anwar’s corruption crackdown, which has targeted his former mentor-turned-rival Mahathir Mohamad and fellow ex-prime minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, risks being viewed as political persecution, according to analysts.

While Anwar is expected to soon reveal a cabinet reshuffle at Umno’s request, analysts and PKR insiders say that he may soon have to contend with a much larger issue: an unhappy electorate.

Before the next general election, his coalition will face state elections – starting with Sabah later this year.

While the outcome of state polls will not affect Anwar’s hold on federal power, analysts say they could serve a litmus test of his popularity.

“With unhappiness, disappointment and confusion among voters and supporters of Umno and PKR, I am afraid it could threaten [Anwar’s] government,” Syaza said.