Indonesia’s costly bet on French Rafale jets under scrutiny after India-Pakistan aerial clash

US$8.1 billion deal for 42 Rafale jets triggers alarm, but Pakistan’s claims may offer grounds for ‘evaluation’ of their use in Indonesia’s defence strategy

Indonesia’s high-stakes bet on French-made Rafale jets is facing scrutiny after Pakistan claimed to have shot down three of the same aircraft used by India, raising questions in Jakarta about the cost, capability and strategic logic behind the deal, which came with a price tag of more than US$8 billion.

The controversy erupted on May 7, when the Pakistan Army announced it had downed five Indian warplanes – including three Rafales – during an aerial clash, using its Chinese-made J-10C fighters equipped with advanced PL-15 air-to-air missiles.

While New Delhi has not verified the claims, Indian Air Force Air Marshal AK Bharti told reporters on Sunday that “losses are a part of combat”, without offering further details.

Hours after the air skirmish, CNN quoted an unnamed senior French intelligence official as confirming that one Indian Rafale had been shot down, which, the broadcaster noted, “would mark the first time that one of the sophisticated French-made warplanes has been lost in combat”.

The development has triggered alarm in Indonesia, which last year concluded an order for 42 Rafale warplanes from their manufacturer, French aviation giant Dassault. In 2022, when Indonesia first initiated the order, a spokesman with France’s defence ministry told reporters that the deal was worth US$8.1 billion.

Last year, Indonesia also ordered two Scorpene-class attack submarines from France’s Naval Group for an undisclosed amount.

In February, Air Force Chief of Staff, Air Chief Marshal Mohamad Tonny Harjono, said six Rafale fighter jets would be received from France starting from “around February to March” next year.

Online, some Indonesian social media users questioned the wisdom of acquiring the Rafales following Pakistan’s claim.

“As an Indonesian, I feel regretful that we’re buying Rafale fighter jets after knowing it could be countered with J-10 that are much cheaper. I hope our president would also buy some of the J-10 fighter jets and other China’s military equipment,” an X user said last week.

“Did Indonesia finally buy the Rafale? Those made in China [fighter jets] seem cheaper and tougher,” another commentator on X said.

The Rafales that Indonesia ordered, and Pakistan’s J-10 aircraft, are considered generation 4.5 fighter jets, just a tad below the most advanced fighter jets known as the “fifth generation”, such as America’s F-35 Lightning II and China’s Chengdu J-20.

Grounds for evaluation

Dave Laksono, a member of Commission I at the House of Representatives, which oversees defence, defended the government’s decision to purchase Rafales, saying that any “unverified claims in conflict zones cannot be used as the sole basis for assessing the effectiveness or failure of a particular weapons system”.

“In modern military history, even the most advanced jets such as the F-16, F/A-18, and F-22 have experienced incidents of being shot down or crashed due to certain tactical conditions,” Laksono said in a statement shared with This Week in Asia.

“Therefore, the performance of the Rafale cannot be measured by just one incident that has not even been fully confirmed.”

However, Laksono argued that Pakistan’s claims of having downed the Rafales also provided “legitimate and constructive” grounds for “evaluation”.

Experts noted that the Pakistan-India aerial combat offered lessons for Indonesia, including the “Rafale’s placement in Indonesia’s general defence strategy”.

“Rafale is one of the best jet fighters in the world right now. The thing is, there’s a specific function that jet fighters can carry, so this is actually [an aspect] that the Indonesian military must underline and must also think through when the Rafale comes later,” said Adhi Priamarizki, military expert and research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

“There are a lot of things for Indonesia to learn, especially how to maintain the readiness of its military. It’s not only about [buying] sophisticated platforms, but you also need the mastery or the know-how to operate those platforms.”

Harjono had said in January that some Indonesian pilots would undergo training from French Air Force instructors in July. In the Rafale home base in Roesmin Nurjadin Air Force Base in Riau, the air force had also prepared simulators, smart hangars and improved in-flight facilities, he said.

According to Laksono, Rafales are needed to modernise Indonesia’s air power, as their operational capability would enable the country to protect its vast archipelagic areas.

Rafales also offered “interoperability with other combat systems that Indonesia has and will have, including radar, missiles, and air defence systems”, Laksono said.

Other factors in favour of the Rafales included vows of technology transfer from Dassault and France, as well as long-term logistical support through government-to-government contracts “that are relatively more stable than purchases from other sources”, Laksono said.

Macron visit

Indonesia’s purchase of Rafales also underlines stronger defence ties with Paris, which has been eager to improve relations with Asian countries after Australia in 2021 scrapped a deal to buy combat submarines from France in favour of US and British nuclear-powered ones.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron is set to visit Indonesia from May 27 to 29, where he will meet his Indonesian counterpart Prabowo Subianto to discuss strategic partnerships in “defence, economics, science and culture”, among others, according to a post Macron made on X in April.

In January, French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu visited Indonesia and met his counterpart Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, as well as Prabowo, which resulted in an agreement to hold joint drill and personnel exchanges between the two countries.

Adhi said Macron’s visit would provide an opportunity for Prabowo to “further defence cooperation” with Paris, in line with his “ambition of modernising the Indonesian military”.

“One thing for sure, France really needs the market, and Indonesia is a potential market for the French defence industry,” Adhi said.

Aside from Rafales, Indonesia also has signed a memorandum of understanding with US manufacturer Boeing in 2023 to buy up to 24 F-15 EX fighter jets, part of its broader effort to revamp its ageing fleet of American F-16 and Russian Sukhoi jets.