Chinese exports show strong resilience in April despite US tariff war

8.1 per cent increase compares with market expectations of a 1.9 per cent rise

China’s exports rose in April, signalling resilience in the face of US “reciprocal” tariffs unveiled last month.

China’s April exports grew by 8.1 per cent year on year to US$315.69 billion, customs data showed on Friday.

The figure beat market expectations of a 1.9 per cent increase in a poll of economists by Reuters, and followed a 12.4 per cent rise in March.

Exports to the United States fell by 21 per cent, compared with a 9.09 per cent rise in March.

Imports, meanwhile, fell by 0.2 per cent year on year, compared with a 4.3 per cent contraction in March. The economists polled by Reuters had predicted a 5.9 per cent drop.

China’s trade surplus stood at US$96.18 billion in April, down from US$102.64 billion in March.

US President Donald Trump announced so-called reciprocal tariffs of up to 145 per cent on a range of Chinese imports on April 2. In retaliation, China imposed duties of up to 125 per cent on American goods.

Senior officials from both sides are preparing for talks this weekend, with China’s top economic official, Vice-Premier He Lifeng, set to meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Switzerland for the first face-to-face negotiations since the start of the latest trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

An HSBC report has predicted that the US is likely to roll back its tariffs on Chinese goods to around 50 per cent.

“While this is only the first step, recent comments and actions from both sides suggest that neither wants the high tariff levels to remain in place for too long,” the bank said in the report, which was issued on Wednesday.

US President Donald Trump has also signalled a willingness to eventually scale back the levies, saying tariffs on Chinese imports could be lowered “at some point”, but he has offered no details or timeline.

China’s factory activity is showing signs of strain amid the escalating trade conflict. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to a 16-month low of 49 in April, slipping into contractionary territory.

Shipments to members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – China’s largest trading partner by bloc and a key transshipment hub – rose by 20.8 per cent in April.

Among them, exports to Vietnam increased by 22.5 per cent year on year. Trump has floated a 46 per cent tariff on imports from Vietnam and has already introduced a 10 per cent baseline levy. The move could indirectly weigh on China’s exports, as Vietnam serves as a key re-routing channel for Chinese goods headed to the US.

Meanwhile, exports to the European Union rose by 8.27 per cent in April.

China, the world’s largest importer of agricultural goods, targeted US farm products in March by increasing tariffs and suspending some imports.

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