China in the Taiwan Strait: May 2025
First, a warning from Shangri-La: At this year’s International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Shangri-La Dialogue, a premier annual security conference, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth warned that a Chinese military attack against Taiwan “could be imminent.” At the same time, he reminded his audience that “President Trump has also said that Communist China will not invade Taiwan on his watch.” He called on U.S. allies and partners in Asia to increase their defense spending in response to Chinese hegemonic ambitions in the region. Hegseth said there would be devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world if China attempted to invade Taiwan and reminded the audience that “the threat China poses is real” and the goal of the United States is to “prevent war, to make the costs too high, and peace the only option.” In a relatively strongly worded statement for a U.S. official, Hegseth also said that if deterrence fails, and if called upon by the president, the Defense Department is prepared to “fight and win decisively.”
A spokesperson from the Chinese Foreign Ministry called Hegseth’s speech negative and defamatory, criticized him for referring to China as a threat, and accused the United States of inciting conflict and undermining peace in Asia. For its part, China did not send a high-level delegation to the Shangri-La Dialogue for the first time in five years. In 2024, by contrast, the Chinese defense minister attended and met with then–U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on the sidelines of the conference. As is true every year, Taiwan was not represented by an official delegation to Shangri-La. Instead, a former defense official and a member of Taiwan’s defense sector attended in their private capacities.
French President Emmanuel Macron attended the conference and also had Taiwan on his mind, as he urged others in Europe and NATO to take seriously the threat of a war over the island, adding, “If Russia could be allowed to take a part of the territory of Ukraine . . . without any reaction of the global order, how would you phrase what could happen in Taiwan?”
Then, a warning from Indo-Pacific Command: As for the United States’ capability to, as Hegseth put it, “fight and win decisively” a conflict over Taiwan, Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, issued his own warning in May. Speaking at the McCain Institute’s annual Sedona Forum on May 2, Paparo said that the ability of the United States to prevail over China in a conflict was under threat as China’s military expands. Although he stated that the U.S. military continues to enjoy superiority over China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Paparo told attendees that the trajectory of the military balance was concerning and, as the PLA expands its capabilities and increases the intensity of its activities around Taiwan, China’s chances of prevailing were improving.
Taiwan’s defense officials also expressed heightened concern. One unnamed official told the Financial Times that China’s rocket force and air force were now able to switch from peacetime to wartime operations in the Taiwan Strait at “any time” without warning. A U.S. official remarked that the PLA Navy and China’s Coast Guard maintain a constant presence of approximately a dozen ships surrounding Taiwan, and that the PLA Navy could “move into a blockade posture . . . in a matter of hours.” The presence of Chinese warships and aircraft carriers in the waters around Taiwan is such that a full-scale Chinese air assault against Taiwan would also be possible without warning. The comments echoed those of Paparo from this February, when he stated that Chinese military drills around Taiwan were “not exercises; they are rehearsals.”
On May 21, Taiwan Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo told the press that Taiwan was confident that the United States remained an effective check on Chinese military power in Asia. In response to concerns about U.S. posture in the Indo-Pacific, Koo asserted that U.S. power in the region could still deter a war and that the United States continued to believe that “preserving the security of the Indo-Pacific, especially the stability of the Taiwan Strait by using deterrence to avoid war, is in our [the United States’ and Taiwan’s] shared interest.” Koo acknowledged repeated calls from Trump administration officials for Taiwan to significantly increase its defense budget and capabilities. Koo said Taiwan recognized the urgency of the matter and was working toward an improved self-defense capability.
Maritime insecurity: On May 1, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) detected thirty-four PLA aircraft, along with eight Chinese naval vessels, participating in a drill near Taiwan. The exercise followed three similar ones in April. The MND deployed its own aircraft as well as certain coastal missile defense systems to monitor the Chinese activities. Later in the month, the PLA conducted live-fire military drills in the Taiwan Strait off China’s eastern coast. Taiwan’s MND said the exercises did not affect the safety of maritime or air travel around Taiwan. Taiwan’s MND monitored the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and a fleet of ships it was escorting in the waters to the immediate southeast of Taiwan. In the days leading up to the incident, Japan’s Ministry of Defense spotted the carrier sailing between Japan’s Okinawa and Miyako Islands toward the western Pacific.
Taiwan’s navy announced that its first indigenously produced submarine, the Hai Kun, had begun the final phases of preparation and testing before its first trial at sea. Reportedly, the Hai Kun has performed well throughout testing and could be commissioned by the navy for service as early as November 2025.
On May 5, Taiwan’s Coast Guard used a water cannon to drive a Chinese fishing boat out of the territorial waters surrounding Pratas (Dongsha) Island in the South China Sea. A Taiwan government spokesperson criticized the PRC for failing to enforce its own declared moratorium on fishing in certain parts of the South China Sea during the summer months. Since January, Taiwan’s Coast Guard has driven thirty Chinese fishing boats out of the waters adjacent to Pratas Island, which Taiwan has designated a marine national park, legally protecting it from all fishing activities for ecological reasons. On May 28, the Taiwan Coast Guard expelled four Chinese Coast Guard ships that it had tracked entering the restricted waters surrounding Kinmen. The latter coast guard attributed its ships’ presence to a routine patrol.
A Chinese man surnamed Li surrendered to authorities and was sentenced to thirty days in detention by a judge in Taiwan after allegedly entering Taiwan on a cargo ship and remaining on the island for two months without informing immigration authorities. Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration is investigating a Chinese national’s claim in an online video that he crossed the Taiwan Strait in a small boat, planted a PRC flag on a beach in Taiwan, and returned home, all without detection. The coast guard is also investigating two Chinese men, now in detention, who were found on rafts in Kinmen’s territorial waters. A coast guard spokesperson told reporters that Taiwan suspects the men could have been directed by Chinese authorities to sail into Taiwan’s waters on the first anniversary of Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration.
To mark that anniversary, Lai delivered a speech on May 20. He did not address China or cross-strait issues in the speech itself, in a break from his past major speeches. Responding to a question about Chinese military exercises around Taiwan during the press conference following the speech, he referred to China as “the aggressor.” Lai accused China of undermining peace and said Taiwan is willing to engage in dialogue rather than confrontation. Lai reiterated Taiwan’s willingness to engage in cross-strait talks without preconditions.
This May, 339 Chinese aircraft violated Taiwan’s self-declared air defense identification zone.
Cybersecurity: On May 27, Chinese state-run media and the government of Guangzhou, a major city in southern China, publicly accused the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)—Taiwan’s ruling party—of being behind a series of cyberattacks against a tech firm based in the city. The PRC Ministry of State Security claimed that Taiwan’s military had also launched multiple cyberattacks against networks in China. Zheng Jian, a Chinese academic and the deputy director of the China Council for the Promotion of Peaceful National Reunification’s China Research and Study Committee of the told the Global Times that cyberspace was one of the main battlegrounds in the fight against Taiwan independence and that China’s public accusations were intended as a strong warning to “Taiwan independence forces.” Taiwan’s National Security Bureau said that China was spreading disinformation about the attacks, while Taiwan’s MND called the accusations fabricated and baseless, and part of China’s larger effort to intimidate and coerce Taiwan.
Taiwan Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Minister Chiu Chui-cheng expressed growing concern that the PRC was using Chinese-owned social media apps Douyin and Rednote as propaganda tools. Douyin is owned and operated by the same company as TikTok, the popular American version of the app. Both Rednote and Douyin are popular with Taiwan’s youth. Chiu expressed his hope that Taiwan’s regulatory agencies would investigate Chinese social media apps further.
One particular Rednote post raised security concerns in Taipei on May 21. The original Chinese creator of the post alleged that it showed footage and images of a Taiwanese air force base taken by a drone flying over the base, triggering worries about the efficacy of drone detection and air defense around military sites. A few days later, Koo told reporters the images were digital composites and not authentic.
A civil-society group based in the Solomon Islands publicly accused China of infiltrating local media to exert influence on a lawmaker. According to the watchdog group, the May 11 decision of Solomon Islands Minister for Rural Development Daniel Waneoroa to withdraw from the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China—an international, intergovernmental group supportive of Taiwan and critical of China—was the result of biased coverage of the minister’s membership by media companies that had been offered financial incentives by the PRC.
China’s United Front: In a May 7 article commemorating the eightieth anniversary of Victory in Europe Day for the Russian Gazette, Chinese President Xi Jinping asserted that 2025 marked eighty years since “Taiwan’s restoration to China.” He argued that “the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Proclamation have affirmed China’s sovereignty over Taiwan” and invoked the authority of UN General Assembly Resolution 2758. Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) called Xi’s assertions a fallacy, deceptive, and contrary to facts. A MOFA statement refuted his arguments, stating that the PRC did not exist when the Cairo and Potsdam declarations were made and that UN Resolution 2758 does not mention Taiwan. In a May 17 interview, Lai compared China’s insistence on holding future cross-strait talks under the framework of the PRC’s so-called One China principle to a large company only agreeing to negotiate with a smaller company once the latter had already agreed to be acquired by the former. Opposition figures criticized the comparison as provocative and reductive and one retired legislator from Lai’s own party said the analogy weakened Taiwan.
May brought more tension over the issue of so-called mainland spouses (people from China who live in Taiwan and are married to Taiwanese citizens). Taiwan’s government set a deadline of June 30 for all spouses to submit proof that they have renounced their PRC household registrations or face having their Taiwanese household registration or citizenship revoked, but according to the MAC over eight thousand people have yet to do so. An MAC official urged those who have not submitted the required documentation not to “test the government’s resolve” by doing nothing and expecting the government to make an exception. On May 10, hundreds of people protested the government’s position on mainland spouses. Some spouses who left the PRC many decades ago are concerned it might now be impossible to navigate the PRC’s complex bureaucracy to secure the needed documents. The MAC has asserted that the processes and exceptions already in place are sufficient to accommodate such concerns. In addition, the MAC announced this May that it will expand its investigation to identify civil servants and public educators in possession of PRC identification documents after an initial examination found two public employees with Chinese passports and seventy-five with Chinese residency papers.
On May 29, the MAC published survey results indicating that most of Taiwan’s public broadly supports the cross-strait policies and positions of the current government: 89 percent agreed that Taiwan and the PRC should engage in a political dialogue without preconditions; 70 percent supported the Lai administration’s national security-related reforms and political emphasis on Taiwan sovereignty; and, regarding the controversial policies affecting mainland spouses, 57.9 percent of the public supported the MAC’s requirement that spouses in Taiwan renounce their PRC residency. Further, 86.2 percent of respondents viewed the PLA’s military exercises around Taiwan unfavorably and over 79 percent disagreed with China’s stance that Taiwan’s future lay in unification with the PRC.
On May 21, the DPP expelled five party members, including a former advisor to National Security Advisor Joseph Wu, accused of spying for China.
The travel section: Taiwan’s Ministry of Education issued a warning to students regarding the heightened risk of traveling to the PRC for exchange programs. As summer programs began for the year, Deputy Education Minister Chang Liao Wan-chien reminded students of the risks of propaganda and arrest and reminded administrators that cross-strait exchanges are legal as long as they are free from political agendas. According to the MAC, as of mid-May, eighty-nine Taiwanese nationals were either missing or detained in the PRC. With Beijing’s annual Straits Forum planned for June 2025, the Taiwanese government urged local officials across Taiwan not to attend, calling the forum part of China’s United Front influence campaign. The Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan’s largest opposition party, criticized the advisory for raising tensions with China.
Taiwan announced that it would crack down on those misusing business and conference visas for tourism purposes; such visas are easier for Chinese citizens to obtain than tourist visas.
The arts and culture section: A news anchor for Chinese state-run media caused controversy on Chinese social media when she mistakenly referred to China and Taiwan as “two countries” before correcting herself, while covering Lai’s speech commemorating his first year in office. At the Copenhagen Democracy Summit on May 13, former Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen delivered a keynote speech urging democracies around the world to unite and arguing “Taiwan’s security is essential to regional stability and to defending democratic values amid mounting authoritarianism.” She spoke in advance of the premiere of the first episode of “Zero Day,” which the summit screened. “Zero Day” is a new Taiwan-produced limited series depicting the week leading up to a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
On May 15, Chiu announced investigations into approximately twenty Taiwanese celebrities and influencers for promoting Chinese Communist Party (CCP) propaganda. Taiwan’s MAC and Ministry of Culture (MOC) alleged that the subjects of the investigation directly echoed CCP messaging on their platforms during sensitive times, including during PLA military drills around Taiwan. According to MAC Deputy Minister Shen You-chung, posts that crossed the ministry’s so-called red line and therefore warranted deeper investigation included language advocating for eliminating Taiwan’s sovereignty, promoting unification of the PRC and Taiwan by force, and undermining Taiwan’s free and democratic order. The MAC and MOC do not plan to make the list of suspects public while the investigation is ongoing.
On May 28, Taiwan’s MAC warned Taiwanese people not to attend a Chinese media and cultural summit in Beijing that the MAC labeled a propaganda effort. In a speech at the conference, one Chinese official called for efforts by both sides of the strait to “unite and strive for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and emphasized that Chinese and Taiwanese people are all Chinese and belong to one China. KMT leaders piloted a delegation of thirty Taiwanese officials to the summit. On May 12, Chiu announced an investigation into a group of individuals representing the Fumei Temple for allegedly evading proper registration. The delegation from the temple, located in Quanzhou, China, may have conducted a cross-strait religious exchange without applying and receiving approval from the Taiwanese government. Chiu linked the incident and others like it to a Chinese effort to use religious and cultural exchanges to promote unification among Taiwan’s public.
