China in Europe: November 2024
Incoming EU Foreign Policy Chief: Former Estonian Prime Minister and incoming EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas signaled a significantly tougher stance on China. In testimony before the European Parliament on November 12, Kallas emphasized that China should face “a higher cost” for supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine. She highlighted China’s covert role in undermining the international order alongside Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Her confirmation suggests a shift in EU foreign policy toward greater assertiveness compared to her predecessor Josep Borrell. As Estonian prime minister, Kallas previously oversaw Estonia’s exit from the China-led “16+1” format and has advocated for a tougher EU-wide approach to Chinese influence operations and unfair trade practices. Her leadership is expected to catalyze greater coordination among EU member states on China policy, particularly in countering economic coercion and supporting Ukraine.
Diplomatic Expulsions in Lithuania: Lithuania expelled three Chinese diplomats on November 29, accusing them of violating the Vienna Convention and domestic legislation. Though Lithuania did not release specific details, the expulsions come amid heightened suspicion of Chinese interference in Lithuanian elections and ongoing tensions over Taiwan. Lithuania has faced sustained pressure from China since it allowed Taiwan to open a de facto embassy in 2021. In response, China condemned the expulsions as “wanton and provocative” and warned it could reduce the size of its diplomatic mission in Lithuania. The Chinese Foreign Ministry added that it reserves the right to implement countermeasures.
Suspected Sabotage of Baltic Cables: European governments expressed concern in late November over suspected Chinese sabotage of undersea fiber-optic cables in the Baltic Sea. The Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 was observed traversing the precise location of two damaged cables (one between Sweden and Lithuania, the other between Finland and Germany) before anchoring in Danish waters. Multiple naval vessels, including the Danish navy, monitored the ship’s activities. Investigators believe the cables could have been severed deliberately, possibly by dragging an anchor for over one hundred miles along the seabed. Swedish authorities have launched a formal criminal investigation for aggravated damage and interference with communications. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson warned the Baltic Sea is now a “high-risk” zone and emphasized the importance of not drawing premature conclusions. China has denied responsibility, while Russian officials denied allegations of involvement as “absurd.” The suspected sabotage underscores growing fears over the vulnerability of European critical infrastructure to hybrid threats linked to authoritarian states.
Italian State Visit to China: Italian President Sergio Mattarella traveled to China from November 7 to 12. According to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the state visit sought to mark “the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the China-Italy comprehensive strategic partnership.” During the visit, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mattarella invoked the legacy of Marco Polo frequently to frame the visit, and Xi used his opening remarks to comment on the seven hundredth anniversary of Polo’s journey to China. Mattarella’s itinerary included visits to Beijing, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou, highlighting cultural cooperation and scientific exchanges. While Rome’s exit from the BRI dominated international coverage, both sides downplayed the issue. Chinese state media portrayed the visit as a sign of continued pragmatic engagement, noting that many Italian high-tech and cultural firms remained closely linked to Chinese markets.
Electric Vehicle Trade Dispute: Trade negotiations between the China and the European Union over electric vehicles (EVs) made little progress. According to senior EU officials, structural differences remained unresolved. Brussels is considering a pricing framework or minimum import prices for Chinese EVs, but no agreement has been reached. EU Director General for Trade Sabine Weyand emphasized that fifty hours of negotiations had not yielded a viable deal despite an earlier report suggesting a deal was close.
