Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire welcome, but festering grievances must be tackled

The cessation of hostilities will only hold if backed by tangible peacekeeping and efforts to forge a mutually agreeable border solution

The unconditional ceasefire agreed to by Thailand and Cambodia that came into force from midnight on Monday is to be cautiously welcomed, and current Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) chair Malaysia is to be commended for enabling this truce.

China and the United States also played a role in nudging the two Southeast Asian neighbours to end the unexpected escalation in a military conflict over a disputed border that saw the use of fighter jets, drones, tanks and artillery guns.

The Cambodia-Thailand conflict has its roots in the colonial borders drawn by France, which occupied Cambodia until 1953. While Thailand has contested this arbitrary demarcation, so far it has not tried to change the border through military force. The border of more than 800km (500 miles) has seen periodic skirmishes, especially over some temples seen as sacred to people on both sides.

In 1962, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in Cambodia’s favour in its complaint over the ownership of the Preah Vihear temple. Violent clashes erupted near the temple in 2011, resulting in about 20 deaths and thousands of people being displaced. Cambodia again referred the matter to the ICJ that year, with the court upholding its earlier ruling and awarding Phnom Penh control of the immediate area around the temple in 2013.

A Cambodian soldier died during a skirmish in an unmarked border area in May, making bilateral relations even more combustible. Domestic politics and nationalist sentiment only heightened tensions.

The Thai military has played a major role in the country’s domestic politics since the first coup of 1932 that ushered in a constitutional monarchy. Ever since, the Thai military has seen itself as the principal guardian of national sovereignty and the monarchy, and it has had a frosty relationship with pro-democracy political parties.

Just before the current conflict escalated, Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra – the daughter of telecoms tycoon and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra – held a phone call with Hun Sen, the former Cambodian prime minister who still has considerable influence in the country. The call was meant to ease tensions, but excerpts of it were leaked and caused an internal crisis for the ruling Pheu Thai party.

Paetongtarn came under fire for her deferential tone, calling Hun Sen “uncle” and referring to a Thai military commander as the “opposing side”. This triggered a domestic storm that resulted in the prime minister being suspended by the Constitutional Court and facing an ethics investigation from the National Anti-Corruption Commission. The ensuing public exchange of disparaging remarks and blame game over the military conflict has been very un-Asean-like.

The ceasefire now in effect came after a meeting brokered by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who brought together Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet – the son of Hun Sen – and Thailand’s acting prime minister Phumtham Wechayachai. China said it welcomed the agreement and would maintain communication with Cambodia, Thailand and other parties involved “to contribute in our own way and play a constructive role in cementing the ceasefire”.

The 10 members of Asean have a combined gross domestic product that rivals that of India, and the region has long been seen as politically stable and trade-friendly. It is also among the most peaceful parts of Asia when compared to the Middle East, South Asia and the Korean peninsula. While Southeast Asia was drawn into the cauldron of Cold War geopolitics between the US and Soviet Union, it has been relatively conflict-free for decades, with the Cambodia-Thailand clashes a notable exception.

China and the US are both invested in the region, and there is a wariness among Asean member states over being drawn into the escalating competition between Beijing and Washington. China’s expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea are a source of anxiety for some Asean states, but much of the bloc is also dependent on Beijing for trade and investment. For instance, China is the largest trade partner of both Cambodia and Thailand.

If China and the US lend their support to this ceasefire, there is some hope that it will endure. However, even the backing of these global powers will not address the causes of the dispute over the Cambodia-Thailand border. For that, mutual accusations must be tempered and historical grievances addressed to allow for a gradual troop withdrawal by both nations.

International pressure will work in the short term, but without credible peacekeeping – perhaps under the aegis of Asean – and tangible progress on a mutually agreeable resolution of the border dispute, the risk of renewed fighting remains. As peace remains elusive in many conflict-ridden parts of the world, the Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire is a slender silver lining to an otherwise dark cloud.

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