Australians head to polls with their sights on Trump, cost of living

Labour PM Anthony Albanese is seen to be favoured over conservative challenger Peter Dutton, amid uncertainty over US tariffs

Australians are voting in a national election on Saturday that polls show are likely to favour Labour Prime Minister Anthony Albanese over conservative challenger Peter Dutton, with voter appetite for change dampened by worries over Donald Trump’s volatile diplomacy.

Polling booths in Australia – among the few democracies with mandatory voting – are open from 8am to 6pm, although a record 8 million out of 18 million eligible voters had already cast ballots before Saturday.

Both major parties have focused on cost-of-living pressures but opinion polls show that global uncertainty driven by Trump’s stop-start tariffs rapidly became a top issue for voters during the campaign.

The election, Albanese said on Friday, has come down to a choice between the certainty of Labour or the conservative Liberal-National coalition’s “cuts and chaos”. The prime minister flew thousands of kilometres across three states to pitch to voters on the final day of the campaign.

“My Government has offered stable leadership in uncertain times,” he said.

Dutton highlighted difficulties facing Australian families and small businesses.

“Are you better off today than you were three years ago?” he asked voters.

Dutton forged a reputation as tough on borders over two decades in parliament and pledged to cut thousands of public service jobs.

He sought to distance himself from comparisons with Trump adviser Elon Musk’s agency-cutting fervour but fell behind after the US president placed tariffs on Australia. Dutton had led in opinion polls as recently as February.

A Newspoll published on Friday in The Australian newspaper showed Labor leading 52.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent against the Liberal-National coalition, under Australia’s two-party preferential voting system.

Political strategists said Trump was not likely to be the decisive factor in the election – Albanese has run a strong campaign and Dutton made mistakes, including a short-lived proposal to ban public servants working from home.

But the Trump effect, they said, has added to reservations for voters who became risk-averse.

Several polls suggest Labour may be forced into a minority government. Preferences among supporters of the minor parties and independents could be crucial under Australia’s ranked-choice voting system.

Pollster Roy Morgan noted that the vote for independents and minor parties had doubled since 2007 and was increasing at every election.

In the 2022 election, the primary vote split nearly equally among Labour, at 32.6 per cent, the Liberal-Nationals, at 35.7 per cent, and “others” at 31.7 per cent. Roy Morgan Chief Executive Michele Levine said a third of voters opting for independents and minor parties was likely again in this year’s vote.