April 2025 Russia-China-Ukraine Primer
Trade: On April 15, according to Reuters, Ambassador Zhang Hanhui stated that China plans to increase its imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) this year. He added that there is an increased demand from Chinese buyers. Some of those buyers are asking the Chinese embassy for help contacting Russian LNG suppliers.
In 2024, Russian LNG exports to China increased by 3.3 percent. Despite that increase, significant progress on the planned Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline, which is supposed to transport fifty billion cubic meters of natural gas from the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia to Northern China through Mongolia, has not been made.
This month, according to Eurasianet, China vetoed the Russian proposal to export natural gas through Kazakhstan. That veto will hamper the Russian-owned energy corporation Gazprom as it seeks to expand exports east after losing European buyers. Russia wanted to use Kazakhstan’s pipelines to export thirty-five billion cubic meters of gas. Zhang said that this was not a financially feasible plan and would require building more pipelines. He added that the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline would ultimately be more realistic, despite the current financial and political roadblocks that project faces.
As the war injures Russia’s economy, demand for large purchases is declining, including for Chinese products. In the first quarter of 2025, customs data shows a 6.9 percent decrease in Chinese imports compared to the same time in 2024. More specifically, demand for products such as cars, electronics, and household appliances is decreasing. That decrease is exacerbated by the hope that Western automakers and other companies will come back. Russia’s economic problems, such as high interest rates, labor shortages, and a heavy reliance on the defence sector, cannot be ignored.
According to TradeWinds, Russia’s Arctic oil exports to China are increasing this month, due to increased ship-to-ship transfers that can evade U.S. sanctions. Those sanctions target tankers carrying Arctic crude, including those of Gazprom subsidiary Gazprom Neft. Russia crude is moved through international waters off the coasts of Singapore and Malaysia, then transferred onto non-sanctioned “very large crude carrier” supertankers, which make their way through China.
As the West continues to impose sanctions on Russia, major banks have established a “China Track” netting payment system. The system manages trade transactions and avoids exposure to Western monitors and possible secondary sanctions. It works by conducting trade payments through a network of intermediaries in countries Russia deems friendly. It avoids Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) and Western banking channels, using guarantees provided by the banks and default insurance mechanisms instead.
Space: Russia and China are planning a new space initiative with the development of a nuclear power plant on the moon, to help power the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). The ILRS will counter rival NASA’s Artemis program. On April 23, the chief engineer of China’s 2028 Chang’e-8 mission described plans for the base’s energy infrastructure, including solar power systems, pipelines, and heating and electric cables.
Diplomacy: China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on March 31 and April 1. A Kremlin press release stated that the foreign ministers “emphasized the importance of building up coordination on international issues within the UN, the SCO, BRICS, the G20, APEC and other multilateral facilities and forums.” The two addressed security in the Asia-Pacific region, Iran’s nuclear program, relations with Central Asia, and the Russia-Ukraine war. They also spoke of establishing a “security entity” in Eurasia.
Chinese Nationals on the Front Lines: On April 8, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukrainian forces captured two Chinese nationals, Zhang Renbo and Wang Guangjun, who were fighting with the Russian army in Donetsk. He added that Ukrainian intelligence revealed “many more Chinese citizens” present among Russian forces. As Zelenskyy called upon China to explain its citizens’ involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Lin Jian asserted that China consistently asks its citizens to “avoid any form of involvement in armed conflict.”
Zelenskyy supplemented his prior announcements on April 9, stating that Ukraine now holds the names and documentation for 155 Chinese nationals currently fighting for the Russian army. He stressed that Russia recruited those Chinese citizens through targeted advertisements on social media. According to the Guardian, advertisements appear on social media platforms such as Douyin (China’s version of TikTok), calling upon Chinese men to be “tough” and emphasizing the monetary incentives of joining the army. Although Zelenskyy denied any evidence that the fighters received state sponsorship or direct orders from the Chinese government to join the Russian army, he posited that China must have been aware that its citizens actively participated in the war, used “weapons against Ukrainians on the territory of Ukraine,” and received payment from Russia for their services. The Ukrainian president further accused Russia of “drag[ging] other countries into war,” alluding to North Korea and China. Both Russia and China criticized Zelenskyy’s assertions, with Russian Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov refuting the accusation and Lin referring to the comments as “irresponsible remarks.” Lin reiterated that China remains “a firm supporter and active promoter of a peaceful settlement of the crisis” and denied that China was a “participating party.”
According to an article published by Reuters on April 11, U.S. officials and a former Western intelligence official supported Zelenskyy’s claims, reaffirming that Chinese fighters are in Ukraine as mercenaries with no direct support from China. However, they did say that Chinese military officials, with the Chinese government’s approval, have visited Russia’s front lines to study war tactics. Following their capture by Ukrainian forces, Zhang and Wang appeared at a press conference in Kyiv on April 14. They expressed feelings of betrayal by Russian military recruitment advertisements on TikTok, which offered higher-paying salaries compared to the Chinese average. However, they were later denied the promised initial payment, forced into direct combat roles, and deployed to the front lines. Zelenskyy offered to release Zhang and Wang as part of an exchange for Ukrainian soldiers held prisoner by Russia.
Rising Ukraine-China Tensions: At a press conference on April 17, Zelenskyy accused China of supplying Russia with artillery and other weaponry throughout the war. This marked the first instance in which Zelenskyy has charged China with direct military support to Russia. The Ukrainian president added that he would release intelligence revealing that Chinese firms are involved in weapons production on Russian soil. Lin called Zelenskyy’s assertions “groundless,” repeating China’s “commitment to promoting a ceasefire and ending the conflict.” In turn, Zelenskyy doubled down on his claims by levying sanctions against three Chinese firms: Beijing Aviation and Aerospace Xianghui Technology Co. Ltd, Rui Jin Machinery Co. Ltd, and Zhongfu Shenying Carbon Fiber Xining Co. Ltd. Zelenskyy highlighted the companies for their alleged participation in producing Iskander missiles, a type of short-range ballistic missile Russia often employs against Ukraine.
On April 22, Zelenskyy cited Ukrainian intelligence that Chinese citizens are working in drone production factories in Russia and that Russian agents could have stolen Chinese drone technology without China’s knowledge. Ukraine called upon Chinese Ambassador Ma Shengkun to discuss the accusations.
