Myanmar’s Junta Forces Are Gaining Back Ground, Presaging a Long-Term Quagmire

In the years since the Myanmar military launched a coup in February 2021, the junta clearly expected to quickly crush all opposition. At least at first, it had superior resources and did not face a unified coalition counterforce.

Yet the regime’s forces had until recently consistently lost ground, economic resources, and hearts and minds to the loose coalition of opposition forces. Junta forces, which rely on conscription of young men, have been beaten by guerilla forces but they also have lost open, pitched battles, and have suffered massive defections among both low-ranking soldiers and some officers. Today, the junta controls only about 20 percent of the country’s land, while opposition  forces control about double that amount of land.

As the leading Burma publication The Irrawaddy notes: “More than 2,000 junta soldiers, police and conscripts defected, surrendered, or were captured from January to September [of 2025], according to People’s Goal, a group formed by defecting soldiers [leaving the junta army] … Many defections were linked to the junta’s Conscription Law, which has driven growing numbers of young men to flee military service and seek protection with resistance forces, said an officer from People’s Goal.”

The opposition coalition includes a range of ethnic armed organizations as well as fighters who abandoned nonviolence after holding large peaceful protests after the coup, and instead headed to remote parts of Myanmar, or into Thailand. They trained themselves, with some U.S. nonlethal assistance, to become their own fighting force.

The coalition’s victories surprised the junta’s forces, which dominate Myanmar’s air space, have more sophisticated weaponry, and probably believed the coalition would soon break down, since it contains various ethic militias who have battled each other for years. Yet for now the shaky coalition, all of them opposed to the regime, has held together.

But the opposition, and its external backers, have continued to predict that the regime, which still holds land containing the majority of the population, is going to collapse. (I also have made this prediction at least once.) As the Lowy Institute has noted, “[these] claims proved to be rather premature. Most reflected wishful thinking more than any objective analysis. Even now, 12 months later, some observers are insisting that the junta is ‘in terminal decline.’ Despite its many woes, the junta has proven surprisingly resilient. It still controls Myanmar’s economic heartland and the bulk of the population.”

In recent months, in fact, regime forces have made some gains. They took back Kyaukme, a strategically important town, from one of the ethnic militias. Controlling the town allows the regime to control a critical transport artery. In addition, while the junta had suffered major losses in 2023 and 2024 to one group of ethnic militias in the north, which had been supported by China, Beijing has shifted its approach and now is wholly backing the regime. China has forced those northern ethnic militias to hand a critical town back to the junta and has helped the junta’s leaders end their diplomatic isolation and visit other states. (Hat tip to Joseph Rachman, writer of Foreign Policy’s weekly Southeast Asia brief, for the details in this paragraph.) Beijing also proposed in 2024 to give regime forces $3 billion in assistance, and Chinese drones are providing cover for regime forces to gain back territory in other parts of the country.

Meanwhile, the United States has cut its assistance to pro-democracy forces in Myanmar, as well as aid that helped prevent hunger. The Trump administration also reportedly is weighing whether to engage with the junta, in part because Myanmar possesses extensive deposits of rare earth minerals.

The result has been a quagmire in which neither side now seems capable of making further substantial gains, though they both can kill more people. The regime does so in a particularly brutal manner, regularly bombing civilians in towns, festivals, and other places.   

In this quagmire, the country has become a failed state. As much as half the population lives in poverty and millions of people have fled within Myanmar or to other countries. There is no clear law and order in most places and little humanitarian assistance available; violence against women and girls is skyrocketing, and  diseases like malaria are becoming far more common. Meanwhile, organized crime has thrived. Today, in fact, Myanmar has become the world’s center of organized crime.

The New Humanitarian notes: “Half the population is in poverty, the healthcare infrastructure lies in tatters, and the currency has lost 70 percent of its value, even as food prices soar and infectious diseases are on the rise. There is little sign that fighting between regime and opposition forces will abate or that the military junta, which has said it plans to hold elections this year, will back down … Inflation is at 25.4 percent and the currency has plunged in value … A dollar now costs 4,520 kyats [the Myanmar currency], instead of 1,330 four years ago. Essential commodities are rapidly becoming unaffordable, with chicken, typically the least expensive meat, recording a 91 percent year-on-year increase and egg prices rising by 76 percent over the past year.”

The junta plans to hold national elections shortly, but these are almost sure to be unfree and unfair, and boycotted by the opposition. Without fair elections, or a promise to make changes to the Myanmar constitution, the opposition is unlikely to come to the table and make any lasting peace deal. The government still holds tens of thousands of political prisoners, often in facilities where they are tortured and starved, including longtime democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The elderly leader is suffering from heart problems and needs immediate medical care, according to her son, but she remains in custody. The junta’s refusal to let her out for care and because of her age is not exactly a sign of good faith. Instead, this decision will just add to the continued fighting, further destroying the country.