#Change, LDP! But Will It?
Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s announcement that he would step down has prompted yet another race within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) for a new president. Coming on the heels of last year’s party election, the race has an aura of déjà vu. Indeed, the five contenders all ran in 2024. But, there are some important differences to consider, and there are some new questions for the party as it considers who to elect this round.
First, the differences. Last year, the field opened to a host of aspirants in the first real test of how the party would realign after the death of Abe Shinzo. Both Suga Yoshihide and Kishida Fumio had served in Abe Cabinets and could claim some continuity in their bids for the prime minister’s office.
But the 2024 line-up included nine contenders and an array of LDP faces that could lay claim to the diversity of viewpoints and experience within the party. Many had thrown their hats in the ring in earlier contests. Some were younger, others more policy-savvy. Two women were in the race. And, of course, the most popular in polling among the public, Ishiba and Koizumi Shinjirō, were in the mix. Four from the last election decided to sit this one out: a former female foreign minister, a longstanding party reformer, an Abe confidante and former economic policy minister, and, of course, Ishiba himself. Instead of a buffet of personalities and preferences, this year’s race will demand important trade-offs for the party.
Second, between this year and last year’s party leadership race, the LDP was badly defeated in two national elections. Almost immediately after being elected, Ishiba called for a Lower House election. The results were a rout for the LDP, which lost fifty-six seats. Not only did the conservatives lose, but they and their junior partner in the governing coalition, Komeitō, lost the majority in the Diet. With only 215 seats between them, Ishiba was forced to ask for support from opposition parties for his continued role as prime minister. Lower House committees also changed hands, and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) claimed leadership of the critical Budget Committee slot. Tax relief and the rising costs of living became the focus of cross-party negotiations throughout the spring.
The summer’s Upper House election proved just as bad for the LDP. The LDP-Komeitō coalition lost nineteen seats, again losing their majority. NHK’s report of proportional votes from 2022 to 2025 revealed a 29.8 percent decrease in votes for the LDP. In July’s election, a new party outflanked the LDP on the right—Sanseitō, calling for “Japanese first” policies on immigration and for restricting the rights of foreigners already living in Japan. Media immediately claimed the populist right had arrived in Japan, but the party has yet to define its overall agenda, especially on foreign policy.
NHK’s reporting also revealed that Japan’s two newest opposition parties benefitted most from dissatisfaction with the LDP. In 2022, the Democratic Party of the People (DPP), led by Tamaki Yūichirō, and the Sanseitō, led by Kamiya Sōhei, received less than five million votes, but in 2025, together they attracted more than fifteen million votes. Clearly, the Japanese were ready for something new.
Third, this time around, LDP members must weigh which candidate offers the best chance of victory in the difficult national elections to come. With loyal LDP voters abandoning the party, and with new parties emerging to challenge the LDP’s governing agenda, the party will need to fight harder for a win.
Who is likely to return LDP to majority status? Is it Takaichi Sanae, the lone female candidate, who claims the ideological mantle and the strategic priorities associated with former Prime Minister Abe? Is it the two skilled managers of current and past governments—Hayashi Yoshimasa, Chief Cabinet Secretary to two prime ministers (Kishida and Ishiba), as well as former Minister of Agriculture and Foreign Affairs; or Motegi Toshimitsu, former Secretary General of the LDP and Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Or will the LDP opt for generational change? Two younger candidates, Koizumi Shinjirō, long a favorite within and beyond the party in media polling, and Kobayashi Takayuki, a newer arrival with economic security interests, represent this next generation’s potential. Both can point to cabinet-level experience, although Koizumi has a deeper resume of policy responsibilities.
Televised debates over this past week reveal a sedate race, one full of detailed economic policy ideas designed to address citizen concerns about the cost of living and less of the contentious social or foreign policy differences that characterized last year’s leadership race. When it came time to ask each other questions, the bulk of the questions were directed at the presumed frontrunners—Takaichi and Koizumi.
Spot polls this week revealed that indeed, these were the two front runners, with Hayashi coming in third. Two rounds of voting will occur—one that includes rank and file LDP members and Diet members, and a second that includes only Diet members. The desire to attract the support of those who may not make it to the second round, also tempered the tone.
Finally, the candidates for LDP leader will need to be able to work not only across the reformist and conservative divides within the party but also across political parties. New coalition partners will be needed to govern Japan, and whether another party can join the ruling coalition or, like Ishiba, the next LDP leader will attempt to broker coalitions around specific policy goals remains to be seen. Speculation is rife that the Ishin no Kai, the conservative reformers from the Osaka region, will top the list of potential coalition partners. Yet, Ishin and Komeitō are not friends—either in electoral or policy priorities. They compete for the same urban voters, and they have very different views on Japan’s social welfare and defense priorities.
Under Ishiba, the LDP managed (with some difficulty) to find common ground on tax policy during budget negotiations, but few believe that the reform-minded DPP is ready to formally become part of the governing coalition. What would the enticement be? Policy-savvy Tamaki has attracted attention as a potential next prime minister, but with all the ambition on display for that role from within the LDP, it is hard to imagine any of the LDP contenders negotiating away the top job in Japan.
A coalition among rightist parties might be a possibility, but the new Sanseitō has claimed much of the excitement that the Osaka-based Ishin once did as the conservative alternative to the LDP. Sanseitō must still demonstrate its ability to compete in a Lower House election, where both single-member and proportional seats are contested. Structurally, this is a far more challenging electoral terrain for a new party. With only an Upper House win under its belt, it is hard to imagine even Takaichi Sanae, demonstrably the most conservative contender in this race, wanting to share the spotlight with Kamiya Sōhei, Sanseitō’s leader. Arguably, there are other configurations to contemplate, but for now, suffice it to say, the next LDP leader will need to work to ensure enough opposition party support to be elected as Japan’s next prime minister. After that, cross-party policy coalitions will likely take priority at least until the next Lower House election. The LDP thus needs a leader with the temperament and skill to develop working relations with Japan’s opposition parties.
It used to be that the LDP president would automatically become Japan’s next prime minister. Compromise and enticement, give and take, are now required. Getting the hang of building coalitions will be the prerequisite for governing Japan. So, this October race, advertised by the party as “#Change, LDP!” (#変われ自民党!), demands far more than getting the party’s ducks in a row. The winner on October 4 must assure the public that Japan is in good hands even if the LDP is in the minority. In the past, the LDP could count on its identity as the experienced ruling party to attract voters. Now it must also demonstrate that it has the ideas and the energy to transform how Japan is governed.
