China in the Indo-Pacific: June 2025
China and India make diplomatic overtures: On June 24, a month after India’s military clash with Pakistan, leaders from China and India met in Beijing as part of a renewed campaign to smoothen diplomatic relations. India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi affirmed their commitments to improve bilateral ties, emphasizing border peace and security as the top priority for relations moving forward.
China’s Foreign Ministry released a statement underscoring improved communication and trust, as well as the resolution of “practical issues.” China emphasized the role India could play in a multilateral order, one in which the two countries present “development opportunities, not threats” and operate as “partners, not rivals.” That type of language—in which China paints India as a partner in a multilateral regional and global order—has been common previously when tensions have thawed. China used similar wording prior to pulling back troops from the China-India border last December.
Beijing also emphasized civilizational tropes, asserting, “Both sides must uphold the principle of good unneighborly friendship, strive for mutual benefit, and demonstrate the historical wisdom of two great ancient civilizations by properly handling sensitive issues and maintaining peace and tranquility in the border areas.” China typically uses that language when describing China-Russia relations in the context of a U.S.-led world order.
In a rare break from an otherwise confrontational posture toward China, India’s Foreign Ministry released its own statement of support following the Wang-Doval meeting. New Delhi called for the fostering of people-to-people ties. Indian government attitudes and public opinion toward China have trended low since the countries’ 2020 clash in India’s Ladakh region.
Statements were delivered on the sidelines of the Twentieth Meeting of Secretaries of Security Councils. The meeting was hosted by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which focuses on regional security, and chaired this year by China. The statements came after talks between China’s vice foreign minister and India’s foreign secretary earlier in June, which highlighted many of the same themes.
China-India disagreement at Shanghai Cooperation Organization: India rejected a joint statement introduced by China at the SCO because of its perceived pro-Pakistan leaning, marking a rare rift within the security bloc. According to Indian officials, that statement failed to mention or condemn the April Pakistan terrorist attack on Indian tourists. India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh added that the joint statement both diluted and misrepresented India’s stance on regional security, and that SCO members must “fight terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.”
Singh accused China and other SCO members of suiting “Pakistan’s narrative” on terrorism by not including the terrorist attack in Kashmir but instead mentioning militant activities in Baluchistan. China echoed a talking point by Pakistan, which accused India of backing the Baluchistan independence movement. China has previously accused those linked with the Baluchistan movement of attacking Chinese businesses and citizens operating in Pakistan, which has been a thorn in the otherwise strong bilateral relationship between China and Pakistan.
India’s military prepares for future clash with China: India’s armed forces made several strategic decisions in June to account for China’s direct and indirect support of Pakistan in May, which proved militarily effective. New Delhi’s Defense Ministry approved the execution model for its fifth-generation stealth fighter jet, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft. Experts believe the expedited approval of an execution model for the jet serves as a defense industrial template for public and private industry to work together to address the China-Pakistan challenge. India’s rapid approval of the new fifth-generation fighter came against the backdrop of the urgent introduction of other indigenous capabilities, including Very Short Range Air Defense systems, man-portable anti-tank guided missiles, and the HAL Tejas Mark 2 light combat aircraft. Prior to Operation Sindor, India was not planning to develop a fifth-generation fighter jet, instead focusing on an improved variant of the 4.5-generation multirole combat aircraft. China is already working on its sixth-generation aircraft.
India’s Ministry of Defense also launched a comprehensive audit to eliminate Chinese-made parts from all weapons platforms and technologies. The review will identify Chinese-origin components and assess vulnerabilities within defense supply chains. An internal audit conducted earlier in June revealed defense companies still source components from China, prompting the Ministry of Defense to appoint external agencies to examine everything from supply-chain dependencies to the technology transfer process. Drones and anti-drone systems are typically the most scrutinized for their reliance on Chinese inputs. In February, the Ministry of Defense canceled drone procurement orders after discovering many final products contained numerous Chinese parts.
India’s efforts to minimize reliance on Chinese parts in its defense plants came at a particularly dynamic moment in arms procurement. Since Operation Sindor, India has fast-tracked equipment purchases and development of indigenous weapons. India is also minimizing military vulnerabilities associated with China’s dominance over rare-earth materials. New Delhi requested a dialogue with Beijing following its export controls announcement earlier in the year, with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal describing the announcement as a “wake-up call.” India has sought to build alternative supply chains through deals with the United States, Australia, and central Asian nations.
Pakistan’s new defense budget hike includes even greater purchases of Chinese arms: Following May’s clash with India, Pakistan announced on June 10 that it would increase its defense budget by 17 percent. According to several Pakistani military officials, Chinese weapons suppliers are expected to benefit from that budget increase. On the day of the budget announcement, Pakistan’s government confirmed that China offered to sell it forty J-35 fifth-generation fighter jets, KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircrafts, and an unspecified number of HQ-19 ballistic missile defense systems. Once finalized, the deal will mark the first export of China’s fifth-generation jet.
Chinese defense stocks are feeling the Pakistan bump. Shares of AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company increased over 10 percent following the J-35 deal with Pakistan. Other defense contractors, such as Aerospace Nanhu Electronic Information Technology Co., have seen shares jump as much as 15 percent since the June 10 announcement.
Pakistan has increasingly depended on Chinese arms in recent years. During May’s conflict with India, it relied heavily on Chinese-made J-10C fighters, which successfully downed sophisticated fighters such as the French-made Rafales.
China’s Response to the Cambodia-Thailand Border Dispute: In late May, a skirmish along a disputed area of the Cambodia-Laos-Thailand border left one Cambodian soldier dead, triggering a nationalist confrontation between Cambodia and Thailand. A leaked call between Cambodia’s influential former Prime Minister Hun Sen and Thailand’s then Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra regarding the border clash triggered a political crisis in Thailand. The recording revealed Paetongtarn disparaging the Thai military and adopting a deferential tone toward Hun Sen. Since then, Thailand has closed its border crossings with Cambodia, justifying the move as an effort to crack down on scam centers that operate on the border. Cambodia banned imports of Thai fruit and popular soap operas. Both militaries have increased their presence at the border. Due to the crisis, Paetongtarn was removed as prime minister.
The Chinese Embassy in Thailand issued a statement a few days after the clash, offering to coordinate with the two parties to deescalate tensions.
Chinese Security Presence in Myanmar: Reuters reported that the United Wa State Army, a Chinese-backed militia that is one of the largest drug trafficking organizations in the world, is guarding new rare-earth mines in Shan State in eastern Myanmar. China sourced nearly half of its rare-earth imports from Myanmar in the first four months of 2025, which it processes to produce electric vehicles, medical devices, and wind turbines. In a bid to pressure China to reduce its support for the junta, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), a member of the opposition alliance, seized control of the country’s traditional mining belt in northern Myanmar last October. The KIA said it would not restore the mines to full capacity until Beijing recognized the rebel group’s de facto control of the border. Reuters’s investigation suggests China has sought out new rare-earth mines in Shan as an alternative.
Additionally, the junta, which now controls only a minority of Myanmar’s territory, took steps to formalize the entry of Chinese private security companies (PSCs) into the country. In February, the junta created the Private Security Services Law to allow Chinese PSCs to operate; they are expected to provide security for Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects and public events involving Chinese citizens in the country. In June, the regime announced it was ready to begin certifying PSCs, and the junta convened the Central Supervisory Committee on Private Security Service for the first time. Then, Chinese Ambassador Ma Jia held a series of meetings with junta officials, including the energy and construction ministers, in Naypyidaw, Myanmar. The discussions sought to advance the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, part of China’s BRI, to connect China to the Indian Ocean through Rakhine State.
China and the Philippines Spar Over the South China Sea: In June, South China Sea tensions between China and the Philippines centered on the disputed Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal. On June 14, the Southern Theater Command of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced it had conducted joint sea and air patrols. A day later, a PLA spokesperson accused the Philippines of organizing “joint patrols” and “raising security risks” in the region, an apparent reference to the joint U.S.-Philippine patrols held earlier in the month. On June 17, three Chinese Coast Guard ships confronted a group of Philippine vessels sixty miles off the coast of Palawan, Philippines. As the Philippine contingent of coast guard and fisheries bureau ships escorted a fishing boat near Half Moon Shoal, ship tracking data showed Chinese maritime forces attempting to block the Philippine ships. Later, the Philippines accused China of aggressive maneuvers and using water cannons while its fisheries vessels attempted to resupply the BRP Sierra Madre in the disputed Scarborough Shoal.
Singaporean Prime Minister Wong Visits Beijing: Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong made a five-day visit to China to commemorate the thirty-fifth anniversary of bilateral relations, marking Wong’s first visit to China since he assumed office in May 2024. He met with President Xi Jinping before attending the Summer Davos Event in Tianjin, China. The pair pledged to deepen cooperation on artificial intelligence and the digital economy in what Wong termed an “All-Round High-Quality Future-Oriented” partnership. Premier Li Qiang called on Singapore to “safeguard the stability” of the global supply chain, seemingly against the Trump administration’s policies on tariffs and export controls.
China at Shangri-La Dialogue: At the annual Shangri-La security dialogue in Singapore, China condemned U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s accusations of “Chinese aggression” in Asia. The Chinese delegation also criticized Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro’s plenary remarks and accused the Philippines of “provocations and infringements” in the South China Sea. In contrast to previous years, when it sent its defense minister, China sent a low-level delegation from the People’s Liberation Army National Defense University to the forum. Analysts suggested China was emphasizing economics and trade in its foreign policy amid the Trump administration’s tariff wars.
China’s Summer Davos Hosts Southeast Asian Leaders: On the sidelines of the Summer Davos meeting in Tianjin, Li hosted Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh. Li said the China-Vietnam relationship was beneficial to the region and the world.
