What’s Next? Japanese Voters Hand the LDP Yet Another Loss

Japan’s voters dealt Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with yet another devastating blow on Sunday, the second electoral loss since coming into office last fall. With 125 of the Upper House seats up for grabs, the ruling coalition of the LDP and smaller Komeito garnered only forty-seven seats while together the opposition parties won seventy-eight. A minority in both houses makes governing well virtually impossible.

Japanese face a difficult moment. Pressures born of long term demographic pressures as well as the global consequences of a U.S. bent on imposing tariffs create difficult economic choices for Tokyo. Demands for social support for younger and older Japanese alike are increasing as the size of the workforce decreases. And, of course, Japan must cope with a monumental shift in its regional military balance and a global international order, one that favored multilateralism, is under threat.

Voters have registered their displeasure with the LDP twice over the past year. Losses in the Lower House last October and this week’s Upper House reveal that Japan’s conservatives have lost voter confidence. The liberal alternative, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), led by former Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko, still offers an alternative but not one a majority of Japanese voters embrace. In the Upper House campaign, Noda advocated for suspending Japan’s consumption tax for a year to provide relief to Japanese households struggling with the high cost-of-living. Yet even with this promise, his party failed to expand their seats and to take control in the Upper House. 

Newer parties are drawing voters in. The new Kokumin Minshutō, Democratic Party for the People (DPP), has attracted significant support despite the personal scandals of its leader, Tamaki Yūichirō. This Sunday, the DPP was clearly redeemed. They won seventeen seats. Tamaki has been an advocate for tax relief for Japanese households and for greater government attention to income disparity. 

But the surprise of the election belonged to the newest political force, the Sanseitō. Formed in 2020, it gained only one seat in the 2022 Upper House contest. This year it claimed fourteen, a triumph celebrated calmly by its young leader Kamiya Sōhei. During the campaign, the Sanseitō argued for putting Japan—and Japanese—first. In an interview with Reuters, Kamiya said he drew inspiration from Donald Trump’s “bold political style”. 

Prime Minister Ishiba at the end of a tough election day declared his intent to stay in the office and to continue to work with opposition parties on specific policy goals. But the morning after, the stage seems set for a week of intense political maneuvering. While the LDP digests their loss, opposition party leaders are weighing the costs and benefits of making deals with their rivals.

Three things to watch out for this week. First, who in the LDP will assume responsibility for the electoral loss? Ishiba has declared he will continue in the office to manage the economy and the torturous tariff talks with Washington. So, if not Ishiba himself, will it be the Secretary-General, Moriyama Hiroshi, the prime minister’s closest confidante, who steps down? Of course, others in the party will have a say. If internal pressures on Ishiba grow, then who will assume the party’s presidency? Eight others ran for president of the LDP last September, but it is difficult to imagine who among them would want the job now. Takaichi Sanae may be the exception. 

Second, keep an eye on the decisions made by opposition party leaders. First among them will be Noda, the leader of the CDPJ. Will he call a no-confidence vote in Ishiba? Are other opposition parties ready to push for another Lower House election?  On Sunday night, Noda stated the outcome of the Upper House election was a clear “NO” vote for Ishiba. Tamaki noted that he would be watching Noda before deciding on his next move. The challenge for Noda here is that he could stimulate other parties to move in ways that could bolster the LDP rather than oppose them. The DPP may align some policy issues with the CDPJ, but Tamaki has not been willing to help Noda build an opposition coalition.  

It is hard to imagine the conservative Sanseitō being willing to trade their newfound popularity in a coalition with the leading liberals. Instead, pay attention to Sanseitō and Ishin no Kai, the two new conservative parties in Japanese politics. There could be opportunities here for them to plot and plan. With Sanseitō winning fourteen seats and Ishin securing seven in this election—adding to the combined thirteen seats held from the previous Upper House election—they could be a force to be reckoned with if they can join forces. Would either of these new conservative parties offer to help the LDP out of its misery? What compromises might they demand?

Finally, but perhaps the least likely, a grand coalition between the LDP and CDPJ could create a centrist unity government. For those who think this unimaginable, remember that the LDP joined hands with the Japan Socialist Party (JSP), its long running nemesis, to form a government under the JSP leader, Murayama Tomiichi. So, this option cannot in theory be ignored. When asked if a grand coalition would be possible between the LDP and the CDPJ, Noda pointed out that the money and politics scandals had not yet been resolved to his satisfaction. Was he implying that with someone other than Ishiba at the helm and with an agreement on campaign financing, the CDPJ may consider a coalition with the LDP? 

This week in Japanese politics will offer much in the way of backroom political meetings, personality plays and electoral strategizing.  By next week or the week after, we should know more about who will govern Japan—and how. 

Research assistance was provided by Chris Baylor and Keisuke Wada