What Next for the Trump Effect on Foreign Policy and Foreign Elections?

As I noted in a prior post and Japan Times article, President Trump has become the main factor, outweighing domestic issues, in a wide range of elections held around the globe this year – and probably next as well.

Already, Trump’s treatment of Canada backfired on him, and helped the left-for-dead Canadian Liberal Party come back and win elections over the Conservatives. Notably, in a recent meeting with Trump and the new Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, the atmosphere was fairly frosty; Carney, who has headed both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, held firm, almost scolding Trump in their meeting. Still, he will have to come up with a coherent plan to handle Trump’s approach to Canada while also defending Ottawa’s interests.

Trump also helped the Australian Labor Party, fairly unpopular until recently, enjoy a massive turnaround in public opinion and win recent national elections. Not only did Labor win, which was expected as its successful portrayal of the most effective anti-Trump party boosted it, it actually won by a landslide, much larger than even most pollsters had anticipated.

Now, as with Carney, the hard work begins for Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. He will need to balance the United States’ interests and Australia’s very crucial trade links with China, as well as handle the fallout of U.S.-China tensions. Meanwhile, he will need to continue Australia’s strategy of boosting its presence in Asia as a regional power and finding new export markets.

In Singapore, the Trump effect favored the ruling People’s Action Party, a safe ship in troubled waters. But Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong must move fast to figure out these same U.S.-China tensions. China is genuinely popular among many Singaporeans, and the U.S. image, especially under the Trump administration,  has been badly degraded in Singapore, as it has in neighboring Malaysia.  There, China has become increasingly popular, as it has in Singapore; even Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, a longtime fighter for democracy and once very close to the United States, has shifted  toward favoring China.

The White House wants to amass a group of countries it can make individual deals with and, simultaneously, use to isolate China. Singapore is definitely not going to take this plan, nor is almost any Asian state; China is far too dominant economically in Asia already.

Next comes presidential elections in South Korea on June 3 and then later upper house elections in Japan on July 22. The South Korean presidential election is being held after the impeachment and removal of the former president for attempting to launch a military coup and declare martial law.

By far the favorite is the leftist Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, who just got a huge boost by having his own trial postponed until after the election.  The trial may have dinged his reputation, but the image of the conservative People’s Power Party is now so horrible because of the attempted coup that they have almost no chance in the presidential election.

Lee also likely will be bolstered by his tough but fairly practical approach to the U.S. president. Questioned in a TV appearance by a fellow member of his party, Lee said: “President Trump’s [tariff and trade] strategy is so bold that it could be called the ‘madman theory.’” He added, “Given that many issues are at stake, such as the Alaska liquefied natural gas (LNG) problem, defense cost-sharing, and shipbuilding cooperation, we need to pursue comprehensive negotiations.”

This is an approach that positions Lee as a bulwark against Trump, and a vehicle for expressing South Korean anger against the U.S. president. It makes him also seem willing to talk seriously with Trump yet also ready for building closer links to China, which almost surely would happen under the Democratic Party, whose other top leaders also are warm toward China and somewhat skeptical about long-term ties with the United States.

As an analysis by Carita Reid the Center for Naval Analyses noted: “It is likely a DPK candidate would attempt to reduce tensions with China through economic collaboration to mitigate perceived escalatory actions.”

The Japanese upper house vote also will be another test of the Trump effect. The LDP already has been losing support and lost its outright majority in the lower house last year. Japanese public anger is rising sharply against the United States; Japan is one of Washington’s closest allies in the world, yet both elites and the general public are furious about how the White House is treating them. Japan’s trade negotiator has to deal with this nationalism as he talks with the White House, and Japan has been unusually open about its leverage over Washington.

 Japan’s finance minister has said that, if necessary, Japan could play “cards” against the United States it rarely ever mentions. As Axios reported: “Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said…that the country’s $1.13 trillion in Treasury holdings were a ‘card on the table’ in trade talks… ‘It does exist as a card, but I think whether we choose to use it or not would be a separate decision,’ Kato said on a Japanese TV broadcast, per the AP… It’s a noteworthy shift in the government’s messaging, given a historical reticence by Japanese leaders to even mention that such a threat could exist.” The Financial Times described it as a “rare baring of teeth.’” Such dumping would have massive impacts on U.S. interest rates and the overall U.S. economy.

And if the LDP is not assertive enough, like its finance minister has been, it could suffer in the upper house elections. There, as in so many other places, the party clearly standing up to the U.S. president may benefit a great deal.